Comments on: HopenchangeTM Update: 10.2%! http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=15366&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=hopenchangetm-update-10-2 Right-Wing Red Meat for the Soul Fri, 10 Sep 2010 13:47:53 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=abc By: shawn http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=15366&cpage=1#comment-19736 shawn Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:20:12 +0000 http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=15366#comment-19736 I don't think it'll be able to go above about 20% - since it's a rolling value based on the prerequisite ability to make a claim for unemployment, which itself REQUIRES you to have actually been able to work in a "recent" period. Since the sheer volume of existing unemployed, underemployed and unemployable people is as large as it is, the number is going to eventually reach a saturation level where ObaMao's going to be able to claim a "lower" unemployment level. Sigh. I don’t think it’ll be able to go above about 20% – since it’s a rolling value based on the prerequisite ability to make a claim for unemployment, which itself REQUIRES you to have actually been able to work in a “recent” period. Since the sheer volume of existing unemployed, underemployed and unemployable people is as large as it is, the number is going to eventually reach a saturation level where ObaMao’s going to be able to claim a “lower” unemployment level. Sigh.

]]> By: JCT http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=15366&cpage=1#comment-19706 JCT Sat, 07 Nov 2009 13:25:52 +0000 http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=15366#comment-19706 Don't forget to start plotting the numbers as a projection from the red dots. First, the peak has not yet been defined. Second, the likelihood of a sharp reversal is low. Where to you put the line in September/October of 2010? Looks to me that 9% would be very optimistic and even 9.5% would be counting on the peak turning now. With health care and cap and trade still looming, employers will be cautious. With the commercial real estate market in tough shape, but yet to collapse, hard to say we've peaked. Finally, with states facing tax shortfalls and federal government money going away, there are likely some additional jobs to be added to this number. My guesses are the following: 1. The peak has not yet occurred. 2. 10% or thereabouts for the 2010 election. 3. People starting to look around at other countries and their performance...stimulus will grow more unpopular and stories will abound of inappropriate use of funds. Of these, the third one will be the toughest for the current administration. Facts are stubborn things and all the promises and positioning from the administration on the second point will be muted by actual performance. Don’t forget to start plotting the numbers as a projection from the red dots. First, the peak has not yet been defined. Second, the likelihood of a sharp reversal is low. Where to you put the line in September/October of 2010? Looks to me that 9% would be very optimistic and even 9.5% would be counting on the peak turning now.
With health care and cap and trade still looming, employers will be cautious. With the commercial real estate market in tough shape, but yet to collapse, hard to say we’ve peaked. Finally, with states facing tax shortfalls and federal government money going away, there are likely some additional jobs to be added to this number. My guesses are the following:
1. The peak has not yet occurred.
2. 10% or thereabouts for the 2010 election.
3. People starting to look around at other countries and their performance…stimulus will grow more unpopular and stories will abound of inappropriate use of funds.

Of these, the third one will be the toughest for the current administration. Facts are stubborn things and all the promises and positioning from the administration on the second point will be muted by actual performance.

]]> By: Notamobster http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=15366&cpage=1#comment-19704 Notamobster Sat, 07 Nov 2009 13:07:47 +0000 http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=15366#comment-19704 I meant to say "inefficacy" , but since I screwed it up... I'll lie ans say I was being ironic. I meant to say “inefficacy” , but since I screwed it up… I’ll lie ans say I was being ironic.

]]> By: Notamobster http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=15366&cpage=1#comment-19703 Notamobster Sat, 07 Nov 2009 13:05:49 +0000 http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=15366#comment-19703 Shawn - I think the point was that everything in blue was created (projected) by the Obama Team. They're the one's who said it, not that it's how it played out. If that was the case, there would be no red dots... The illustration merely shows the efficacy of gov't projections... amazingly, their projections are always exaggerated to the exact opposite end of the way they really end up. It's almost like they're lying to us! haha!!! Shawn – I think the point was that everything in blue was created (projected) by the Obama Team.

They’re the one’s who said it, not that it’s how it played out. If that was the case, there would be no red dots… The illustration merely shows the efficacy of gov’t projections… amazingly, their projections are always exaggerated to the exact opposite end of the way they really end up. It’s almost like they’re lying to us!

haha!!!

]]> By: Shawn http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=15366&cpage=1#comment-19698 Shawn Sat, 07 Nov 2009 00:34:22 +0000 http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=15366#comment-19698 My only disagreement with that chart is that it says on it that "Everything in blue was created by Obama's economic team." I have to disagree. The red dots are entirely his responsibility, too. Porkulus has proven just how inversely and adversely government "stimulus" affects the economy. His own chart, as shown here, proves that Porkulus has had directly the opposite effect of their assertions. My only disagreement with that chart is that it says on it that “Everything in blue was created by Obama’s economic team.”

I have to disagree. The red dots are entirely his responsibility, too. Porkulus has proven just how inversely and adversely government “stimulus” affects the economy. His own chart, as shown here, proves that Porkulus has had directly the opposite effect of their assertions.

]]> By: Notamobster http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=15366&cpage=1#comment-19681 Notamobster Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:43:08 +0000 http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=15366#comment-19681 Combine these outstanding funenjoyment numbers with these sweet foodstamp numbers: http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE5A34EI20091104 and you're well on your way to a full-fledged communist revolution! Combine these outstanding funenjoyment numbers with these sweet foodstamp numbers:

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE5A34EI20091104

and you’re well on your way to a full-fledged communist revolution!

]]> By: R.D. Walker http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=15366&cpage=1#comment-19680 R.D. Walker Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:36:05 +0000 http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=15366#comment-19680 I am sure sorry to hear that Barb. I hope it turns out to be the catalyst to a better future. Sometimes it works out that way. I am sure sorry to hear that Barb. I hope it turns out to be the catalyst to a better future. Sometimes it works out that way.

]]> By: BarbaCat http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=15366&cpage=1#comment-19679 BarbaCat Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:25:01 +0000 http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=15366#comment-19679 Yours is the 1st blog I visit for stuff to lift/share (links to you included, oc - :-D) My husband just joined these ranks. Layed off this week. ~B Yours is the 1st blog I visit for stuff to lift/share (links to you included, oc – :-D )
My husband just joined these ranks. Layed off this week.
~B

]]> By: Publicus http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=15366&cpage=1#comment-19678 Publicus Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:05:41 +0000 http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=15366#comment-19678 10.2% is just the traditional measurement -- the real rate is probably closer to 14 or 15%. Consider the ranks of part-timers and seasonal workers: teens, retirees working a part-time job, temps, construction. All of those sectors have been hit hard. And the feds don't count people as "unemployed" who have just dropped out of the market altogether and aren't looking any more. I've been reading lots of puff pieces on how great it is that the recession is over and how great it is that the stock market is up. I don't believe a word of it because all the fundamentals continue to suck. The dollar is still dropping, banks still aren't lending, and commercial real-estate loans are due for the same collapse that residential loans went through last year. 10.2% is just the traditional measurement — the real rate is probably closer to 14 or 15%. Consider the ranks of part-timers and seasonal workers: teens, retirees working a part-time job, temps, construction. All of those sectors have been hit hard. And the feds don’t count people as “unemployed” who have just dropped out of the market altogether and aren’t looking any more.

I’ve been reading lots of puff pieces on how great it is that the recession is over and how great it is that the stock market is up. I don’t believe a word of it because all the fundamentals continue to suck. The dollar is still dropping, banks still aren’t lending, and commercial real-estate loans are due for the same collapse that residential loans went through last year.

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