HopenchangeTM Update: 10.2%!
November 6, 2009
Jobless rate tops 10 pct. for first time since ’83
The unemployment rate has surpassed 10 percent for the first time since 1983 — and is likely to go higher.
Nearly 16 million people can’t find jobs even though the worst recession since the Great Depression has apparently ended. The Labor Department said Friday that the economy shed a net total of 190,000 jobs in October, less than the downwardly revised 219,000 lost in September. August job losses were also revised lower, to 154,000 from 201,000.
But the loss of jobs last month exceeded economists’ estimates. It’s the 22nd straight month the U.S. economy has shed jobs, the longest on records dating back 70 years.
Counting those who have settled for part-time jobs or stopped looking for work, the unemployment rate would be 17.5 percent, the highest on records dating from 1994.
The jobless rate rose to 10.2 percent from 9.8 percent in September. The jump reflects a sharp increase in the tally of unemployed Americans, which rose to 15.7 million from 15.1 million. That was much larger than the net loss of jobs, which is based on a survey of businesses.
Thank God we sold our children into servitude with a trillion in debt, huh?
Publicus :
Date: November 6, 2009
10.2% is just the traditional measurement — the real rate is probably closer to 14 or 15%. Consider the ranks of part-timers and seasonal workers: teens, retirees working a part-time job, temps, construction. All of those sectors have been hit hard. And the feds don’t count people as “unemployed” who have just dropped out of the market altogether and aren’t looking any more.
I’ve been reading lots of puff pieces on how great it is that the recession is over and how great it is that the stock market is up. I don’t believe a word of it because all the fundamentals continue to suck. The dollar is still dropping, banks still aren’t lending, and commercial real-estate loans are due for the same collapse that residential loans went through last year.
BarbaCat :
Date: November 6, 2009
Yours is the 1st blog I visit for stuff to lift/share (links to you included, oc –
)
My husband just joined these ranks. Layed off this week.
~B
R.D. Walker :
Date: November 6, 2009
I am sure sorry to hear that Barb. I hope it turns out to be the catalyst to a better future. Sometimes it works out that way.
Notamobster :
Date: November 6, 2009
Combine these outstanding funenjoyment numbers with these sweet foodstamp numbers:
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE5A34EI20091104
and you’re well on your way to a full-fledged communist revolution!
Shawn :
Date: November 6, 2009
My only disagreement with that chart is that it says on it that “Everything in blue was created by Obama’s economic team.”
I have to disagree. The red dots are entirely his responsibility, too. Porkulus has proven just how inversely and adversely government “stimulus” affects the economy. His own chart, as shown here, proves that Porkulus has had directly the opposite effect of their assertions.
Notamobster :
Date: November 7, 2009
Shawn – I think the point was that everything in blue was created (projected) by the Obama Team.
They’re the one’s who said it, not that it’s how it played out. If that was the case, there would be no red dots… The illustration merely shows the efficacy of gov’t projections… amazingly, their projections are always exaggerated to the exact opposite end of the way they really end up. It’s almost like they’re lying to us!
haha!!!
Notamobster :
Date: November 7, 2009
I meant to say “inefficacy” , but since I screwed it up… I’ll lie ans say I was being ironic.
JCT :
Date: November 7, 2009
Don’t forget to start plotting the numbers as a projection from the red dots. First, the peak has not yet been defined. Second, the likelihood of a sharp reversal is low. Where to you put the line in September/October of 2010? Looks to me that 9% would be very optimistic and even 9.5% would be counting on the peak turning now.
With health care and cap and trade still looming, employers will be cautious. With the commercial real estate market in tough shape, but yet to collapse, hard to say we’ve peaked. Finally, with states facing tax shortfalls and federal government money going away, there are likely some additional jobs to be added to this number. My guesses are the following:
1. The peak has not yet occurred.
2. 10% or thereabouts for the 2010 election.
3. People starting to look around at other countries and their performance…stimulus will grow more unpopular and stories will abound of inappropriate use of funds.
Of these, the third one will be the toughest for the current administration. Facts are stubborn things and all the promises and positioning from the administration on the second point will be muted by actual performance.
shawn :
Date: November 9, 2009
I don’t think it’ll be able to go above about 20% – since it’s a rolling value based on the prerequisite ability to make a claim for unemployment, which itself REQUIRES you to have actually been able to work in a “recent” period. Since the sheer volume of existing unemployed, underemployed and unemployable people is as large as it is, the number is going to eventually reach a saturation level where ObaMao’s going to be able to claim a “lower” unemployment level. Sigh.