Political markets are betting against a public option

November 10, 2009 R.D. Walker

Intrade allows you to bet on sports, politics, the weather… whatever. It is a pretty good measure of real opinions untainted by politics. It is one thing for a Obama cheerleader to tell a pollster he believes that a public option health care plan will pass. It is another thing completely for him to bet hard cash on it. When people put their money where their mouths are, they tend to tell what they really think.

The graph below shows the live Intrade market on whether a public option will be passed before June 30 next year. As I type this, the bid is 17.5. That means you can buy a share betting it will pass by then for $0.175 and, if in fact it does, you will get a $1.00 for each share. If the price were 99.9, people would be virtually certain it would pass. If it were 1.10, it would mean that people were virtually certain it would not. The bottom line is that a price 17.5 means that the vast majority of people are betting against there being a public plan by next summer.

Will a federal government run health insurance plan (a public option) be approved in the US before midnight ET 30 Jun 2010?
Price for Will a federal government run health insurance plan (a public option) be approved in the US? at intrade.com


One Response

  1. R.D. Walker :

    Date: November 10, 2009

    Here is an example of the results of government health care. But, hey, it isn’t anti-liberty or anything.

    This is in Japan: a free, democracy.

    Under a national law that came into effect two months ago, companies and local governments must now measure the waistlines of Japanese people between the ages of 40 and 74 as part of their annual checkups. That represents more than 56 million waistlines, or about 44 percent of the entire population.

    Those exceeding government limits — 33.5 inches for men and 35.4 inches for women, which are identical to thresholds established in 2005 for Japan by the International Diabetes Federation as an easy guideline for identifying health risks — and having a weight-related ailment will be given dieting guidance if after three months they do not lose weight. If necessary, those people will be steered toward further re-education after six more months.

    To reach its goals of shrinking the overweight population by 10 percent over the next four years and 25 percent over the next seven years, the government will impose financial penalties on companies and local governments that fail to meet specific targets.

    Welcome to the Brave New World.

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