The Unemployment Rate of 7.8% is a Lie

Obama’s Labor Department announced today that the unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, a full 0.2% below the 8% that has hung around Obama’s neck like a millstone. It’s amazing that after 43 months of craptacular unemployment, just before the election it should drop into the “shitty but better” range, as opposed to the “simply shitty” range we’ve been in for so long.

Yeah, amazing because it’s crap.

The household survey, the part that is used to calculate the unemployment rate, isn’t based on real numbers. It’s mostly an educated guess by the Labor Department (Obama’s Labor Department). Real numbers would be something like official payroll numbers, but those take a long time to collect and the household survey has been used for a long time, so everyone kind of figures that in.

Unless you screw around with how you calculate the household survey. Based on today’s report, the household survey numbers are the best since 1983. You tell me if that feels right.

The reason we’re now at 7.8% is because OBAMA’S Labor Department decided that they needed to increase the number of people employed by THE GOVERNMENT over the previous two months.

Labor Secretary Linda Solis: “Hey! Surprise! We found a whole shit-load of people we didn’t know were employed! They were just in the back and the new guy forgot to count them.”

They have also decided that part-time employment is just like full-time employment and so they get counted just like full-time employed people. I’ll be sure to tell my nephew that his part-time job is just like a full-time job. That will make sleeping on his mother’s couch because he can’t afford an apartment so much easier.

Simply put, Obama is so desperate to win that he’s outright manipulating data to make himself look better.

What a dirtbag.

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7 Responses to The Unemployment Rate of 7.8% is a Lie

  1. notamobster says:

    In the grand scheme of things, this falls somewhere below Fast & Furious and above “my daddy loved my mother” on his list of lies & chicanery.

    He’s a dirtbag, we’ve known that as long as we’ve known him.

  2. Tatersalad says:

    The Obama administration has again, “cooked the numbers” and he will tell everyone that “we are moving forward”. Something isn’t adding up America other than for Christmas hiring prospects. The economy lost 16,000 manufacturing jobs the last month. You figure it out.

    1. http://weaselzippers.us/2012/10/05/unemployment-rate-miraculously-drops-to-7-8-114k-jobs-added/
    2. http://www.theblaze.com/stories/influential-september-jobs-report-unemployment-drops-to-7-8/comment-page-9
    Among all unemployed persons, the proportion who had been jobless for 27 weeks or longer was 40.1 percent, essentially unchanged from the prior month but down from 44.7 percent a year earlier.

    Christmas hiring prospects:

    Among the employed, the number of involuntary part time workers increased by 582,000 to 8.6 million in September.
    http://bls.gov/news.release/jec.htm

  3. Lerxst says:

    If the labor participation rate was the same today as it was when preezy took office, the rate would be 10.7%.

    Another interesting observation in today’s report (from ZeroHedge)…

    HH survey ppl. employed – 873,000
    PT jobs for econ. reasons – 582,000
    582,000 / 873,000 = 0.666666666666666
    EXACTLY two thirds.

    The government wouldn’t pull numbers out of their ass to make preezy look better, would they?

  4. messup says:

    Statistical unemployment rate gerrymandering started with Clinton:
    The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor, conducts two monthly surveys of U.S. employment and unemployment. Results usually are released on the first Friday of the month following the survey:

    1)Household Survey (also Current Population Survey) — The household survey generates the unemployment rate from a statistically designed monthly sampling of roughly 60,000 households. Other surveys, such as the annual poverty survey, often are piggybacked on the employment questions. The survey measures the number of people who have jobs.

    2)Payroll Survey (also Establishment or Current Employment Statistics Survey) — The payroll survey generates an estimate of the number of nonfarm jobs in the U.S. economy, based on a monthly non-random sampling of payroll tax filings of about 160,000 U.S. corporations and government agencies. The survey measures the number of jobs (some individuals hold more than one job).

    The household survey is conducted during the week that includes the 12th of the month. The payroll survey is conducted as of the payroll period that includes the 12th of the month. Other than for seasonal factors, the household survey gets revised only with series or population redefinition. The payroll series is revised for two months following the initial release and then again in an annual benchmark revision.

    Where the household survey includes farm workers, the self-employed and workers in private homes, the payroll survey does not. The payroll survey counts jobs, making no adjustment for multiple jobholders. Yet, adjusting for all differences, the BLS never has been able to reconcile the two series within one million jobs.

    Conventional wisdom in the financial community is that the payroll survey is more accurate, given its larger sampling base. To the contrary, the household is scientifically designed, and the error can be estimated to ANY DEGREE DESIRED. The payroll data are haphazard at best, and the BLS has no idea of potential reporting error.

    The BLS estimates a 90% confidence interval for a change in the unemployment rate of ±0.22%, and a 90% confidence interval for the monthly change in payrolls of ±108,000. The BLS, however, admits the payroll survey’s confidence interval is not solid, given built in biases and the lack of randomness in the monthly sample.

    The payroll survey used to include a regular monthly bias factor of about +150,000 jobs. Those jobs were added each month for good measure, as an estimate of jobs created by new companies. Companies that went out of business generally were assumed to be employing the same number of people as before they went out of business.

    In the last couple of years, the BLS has modeled and seasonally adjusted its bias factor; there is no more guesstimation. Accordingly, new monthly bias factors have ranged from -321,000 to +270,000 during the last year. This, combined with continuous seasonal adjustment revisions, has added to the volatility of recent monthly reporting.

    Suggesting that the household survey is more accurate than the payroll survey, however, does not mean household survey accurately depicts unemployment. While its measures have definable statistical accuracy, the accuracy is related only to the underlying QUESTIONS surveyed and to the UNIVERSE of people surveyed.

    Example:
    The popularly followed unemployment rate was 5.5% in July 2004, seasonally adjusted. That is known as U-3, one of six unemployment rates published by the BLS. The broadest U-6 measure was 9.5%, including discouraged and marginally attached workers.

    Up until the Clinton administration, a discouraged worker was one who was willing, able and ready to work but had given up looking because there were no jobs to be had. The Clinton administration dismissed to the non-reporting netherworld about five million discouraged workers who had been so categorized for more than a year. As of July 2004, the less-than-a-year discouraged workers total 504,000. Adding in the netherworld takes the unemployment rate up to about 12.5%.

    The Clinton administration also reduced monthly household sampling from 60,000 to about 50,000, eliminating significant surveying in the inner cities. Despite claims of corrective statistical adjustments, reported unemployment among people of color declined sharply, and the piggybacked poverty survey showed a remarkable reversal in decades of worsening poverty trends.

    Somehow, the Clinton administration successfully set into motion reestablishing the full 60,000 survey for the benefit of the Bush administration’s monthly household survey.

    While the preceding concentrates on the numbers that tend to move the markets, the household survey also measures employment. The payroll survey also surveys average hourly and weekly earnings and average workweek.

    Bottom line: there’s “wiggle-room” in them thar numbers. Pray. Amen.

  5. R.D. Walker says:

    As soon as the Labor Department ruled that they would start counting blow jobs as employment and the Administration sent Sandra Fluke on the road, the unemployment rate was bound to drop.

  6. Rich says:

    You would think that a 0.3% decrease in UE would also be reflected in the U6 number.

    However, the U6 number remained steady from last month at 14.7% (going by memory on the number but certain that it was unchanged from last month.)

    Strange no?

  7. Lerxst says:

    The Household Survey must go something like this…

    “Hello?”
    “Hi, BLS here…How many people in your household work?”
    “Well, my spouse and I are unemployed.”
    “How do you put food on the table?”
    “We both work in our garden every day.”
    “Any kids?”
    “Yes, three.”
    “Do they work in your garden, too?”
    “Yes.”
    “So, you and your spouse and three kids work in your garden every day?”
    “Yes.”
    “GREAT! That’s all we need to know. We’ll put you down for 5 new jobs. Thanks for your participation.”

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