Demographics is Destiny

Like Europe and Japan, the American fertility rate is in a nosedive. That is disastrous.

Forget the debt ceiling. Forget the fiscal cliff, the sequestration cliff and the entitlement cliff. Those are all just symptoms. What America really faces is a demographic cliff: The root cause of most of our problems is our declining fertility rate.

The fertility rate is the number of children an average woman bears over the course of her life. The replacement rate is 2.1. If the average woman has more children than that, population grows. Fewer, and it contracts. Today, America’s total fertility rate is 1.93, according to the latest figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; it hasn’t been above the replacement rate in a sustained way since the early 1970s.

Low-fertility societies don’t innovate because their incentives for consumption tilt overwhelmingly toward health care. They don’t invest aggressively because, with the average age skewing higher, capital shifts to preserving and extending life and then begins drawing down. They cannot sustain social-security programs because they don’t have enough workers to pay for the retirees. They cannot project power because they lack the money to pay for defense and the military-age manpower to serve in their armed forces.

How is the Obama Administration dealing with this problem? First, by assuring that abortion on demand remains legal and easy. Second, by – for the first time – passing a law that provides absolutely free birth control to every American. Third by causing the labor force to shrink so that fewer of the young who manage to be born work and, therefore, are no different economically than the elderly.

America, like much of the West, is becoming a economy where fewer and fewer young people support more and more elderly and others not in the labor force. It isn’t sustainable.

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5 Responses to Demographics is Destiny

  1. R.D. Walker says:

    On the other hand, the Administration does want to flood the labor force with immigrants.

  2. Ray Davies says:

    Some may remember that back in the 60s and 70s the philosophy was to save the world by only replacing yourselves in the gene pool. Back in those days it made a lot of sense, because most of us didn’t have a pot to piss in, so how could we afford the kids and get an education or do what we needed to do to make a living and support what we had. Then, there are the ones who did make it, and the replacement theory was completely ingrained. These were the people who had the smarts and the means to birth and care for well mannered, well educated,articulate,and successful members of society. We had 2 kids,and one died, We are not replaced. Our daughter has one kid,enough to replace her, Her ex, is working on his 2nd, but her ex should not be replaced (sorry). Now, OUR GOVERNMENT wants to open the borders and welfare system to people who will never climb the ladder and indeed always be a sponge on the society who believes in hard work and getting to the top. Friends, we need to change our way of voting or change our way of thinking and find a comfortable chair,sit back and en joy the parade supporting us.

  3. sortahwitte says:

    So….. the mexicans went for the marxist party in the last election. Since they are embracing murder of little children now, will that negate their numbers?

  4. Tony says:

    Those children to be born may be trained to support the collective. Trained to do so by publicly funded educators. Around DC a schoolchild’s finger painting, created for Mom, may not be his own.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/prince-georges-considers-copyright-policy-that-takes-ownership-of-students-work/2013/02/02/dc592dea-6b08-11e2-ada3-d86a4806d5ee_story.html?hpid=z1

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